In Part 1, I mostly wrote about who has left us, so that leaves me with who has joined us and what any of this means. To dive right in, well, we’ll start with someone who is expected to dive in (and win the ball):
Oriol Romeu is 31 years old. This, in and of itself, is not particularly concerning because he is a low-cost replacement for 35-going-on-45-year old Sergio Busquets, but it’s somewhat telling that the best defensive midfielder Barcelona could get is player deemed not good enough for Southampton for something around €3.4 million. Sure, that’s absolutely a bargain compared to the €133 million that Chelsea are paying Brighton for Moises Caicedo (and I mean that very seriously: there’s no way Caicedo is 39 times the player Romeu is) or the €120 million Chelsea also paid for Enzo Fernandez last January…or the €70 million they paid for Romeo Lavia…or the €27 million they paid for Lesley Ugochukwu (who seems quite the bargain now!). This is a good signing for depth, but not a great signing for a starter, it’s just that some decisions had to be made, a team had to be fielded, and a solid player was found who grew up in the system, spending 4 years in La Masia and an additional 2-ish years in the B team before bouncing up to the first team for 1 match. Then it was off to, obviously, Chelsea. Then it was time for a whole career: Chelsea, Valencia, Stuttgart, 8 seasons at Southampton, and finally a re-emergence in Spain for last season with Girona. His time back in Catalunya has gone well and he generally got plaudits for his play (33 league appearances), but he wasn’t spectacular. And, in some ways, that’s precisely what Barça need: depth; unspectacular, normal, totally decent depth. And Oriol will provide that. It’s a fine signing, but it’s plugging a hole rather than sealing it up.
The guy who was supposed to seal up a hole is Ilkay Gundogan, but—and here is where I’m going to differ from a large number of fans—even if Gundogan is a very good player at 32 (turns 33 in October), this is also not how you go about building a long-term squad. Yes, he’s good, but he’s also expensive and will likely command large amounts of playing time when it would be better spent on young players growing into superstars, such as Gavi and Pedri. This is a season preview, but I have the luxury of having seen the first match before writing this particular bit, so I can say that I was concerned about Pedri’s role against Getafe. Sure, Bordalas likes to play on the edge between “tough football” and “common assault,” but it’s more that Pedri made just 10 passes in the first half. That’s almost tragically funny, but that’s not good for your most creative player. The question is whether Gundogan can coexist in a midfield with Pedri. I thought the question would be if Gundogan’s arrival would stifle Gavi’s development, but I didn’t think it might stifle Pedri’s on-field influence. The problem is that Gundogan is being paid a starter’s wages, so whether or not he’s the best option for squad growth, he’ll need to start (especially if he received promises of playing time as part of the lure away from Manchester City). That he’s quite good at this whole “football” thing is obviously an important detail and couple that with his prior relationship with Lewandowski at Borussia Dortmund and there’s reason to be optimistic, especially if Xavi is willing to rotate heavily throughout the year to keep legs fresh and players tuned. There is a lot of football to play and it is good for Barça that Gundogan is here, but I still question the motives of signing a player on the downswing of his career at a premium salary when salary is the albatross weighing down Barça’s neck.
The guy breathing down the starting role’s neck is Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, who I’m just going to call Abde from now on. A dynamic winger with speed to burn, there’s a bit of Adama Traore syndrome about him: with so much speed, it’s sometimes nice to just use it as a shortcut rather than taking a breath and getting into a better position for the final pass or shot. But he’s also 21 and capable of destabilizing defenses. It was just a preseason match, but against Arsenal he showed what he can do when given space. Against Getafe he showed some of his youthful limitations, choosing to take on players and shots when a pass would very possibly have unlocked 3 points. But we grow and learn and if it’s depth that we need, it’s depth that we have with Abde. Consider his season a grand experiment rather than a finished product demonstrating his skills. I want investment in youth and that is what this looks like. Our bank account demands investment in youth and that is what this looks like.
You might not be shocked to think that Iñigo Martinez looks like Thomas Vermaelen to me. If he plays this season, I’ll take it back (and he has hinted that he will), but so far we’ve signed a guy with a long-term injury despite not having any money. On paper a fully fit Martinez is a good addition because it removes any reliance on Marcos Alonso as backup LCB so if he’s fit and able to put in a variety of shifts throughout the season, this seems like it should be a pretty good deal and signing. I’m old enough, of course, to remember when he was at Real Sociedad and then of course at Athletic Bilbao and I’m also young enough to remember that I thought he was quite good, just not quite Barça level. So thinking that this is a quality signing is either me convincing myself he’s better than I thought or, perhaps worse, Barça’s level having dropped sufficiently that it makes the signing more viable. I hope I’m proven wrong on countless scores here, apparently.
But speaking of Barça’s level:
That point is extremely well taken, especially considering the financial constraints, the World Cup in the middle of season, and the constant pressure to succeed, but mainly it’s important to note that despite his success, Xavi is a victim of the value placed on European competition. Failure to reach the knockout rounds of the Champions League last year was a financial problem for the club, but it was an absolute disaster on Twitter where, as everyone knows, the truly knowledgeable and even-keeled people reside. You can follow me here.
What drives the narrative that Xavi, whose defensive record for the first 34 matches of the league was 13 goals allowed, cannot figure out how to marshal a squad? The offensive output over that same period was 64 goals. 27 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses sealed the deal and it’s weird to think that a 79.4% win rate and an 83.33% points earned rate is bad. It should not be forgotten that Luis Enrique won 76.24% of his matches in charge and even the great Pep Guardiola, greatest manager of all time, had a 72.47% win rate. Ronald Koeman had a Barça career record of 39-12-16, which is a 58.21% win rate and Frank Rijkaard had a 58.61% win rate.
Xavi is developing as a manager alongside a squad that is also developing and it shouldn’t be forgotten that Koeman left him with a hole to climb out of. I am happy to criticize managers who sign players like Ferran Torres for far more than they are worth, but it is also important to note that Xavi resurrected Dembele, gave Pedri and Gavi immense roles, developed Balde into a young-but-still-great left back, and has been the pragmatist that so many cules demanded and are now lambasting him for being.
And yet it is true that sometimes it feels like Xavi is being too, well, Xavi. When he was a player, Xavi was a purist and it seems obvious that he remains such now, as a manger. The difference is that he has a lot more responsibilities for the trajectory of the team and is thus looking for a way to win right now rather than a way to win the correct way. He’s vertical because his players require verticality since they can’t control matches particularly well. This is a function of players that were brought in under Xavi of course (Kessie, for example), so it is partly Xavi’s fault for this approach that so many Barça fans think of as too direct. It is also true that Xavi wants squad depth so that the team can play a high-octane version of Xavi, Iniesta es una fiesta and has been hampered by key injuries; Xavi is also responsible for bringing in the medical team. There is a bit of give-and-take here that has to be ironed out and it’s somewhat understandable for fans to look at what Xavi has put forward and be unsure of how much better it will get.
After all, Pep Guardiola came up from the B team and showed the world how football should really be played (according to Barça lore); Lucho appeared to reinforce that, but with horses in midfield. Xavi is just the next step in that line…or he’s another fallen prophet, a cipher. A large caveat for Xavi is that his first season in charge and his European statistics bring his overall stats down to a 60.4% win rate.
You can simultaneously argue that Xavi simply doesn’t have the squad he wants (he needs a right back, but will Cancelo actually join?) and that he has failed to build with the resources on offer (spent 55m on Ferran Torres). There are a lot of questions, but one thing is for certain: Xavi is not clueless. Could he be better? I think so. Does he know this? I’m sure of it. The team will continue to improve under him, but it is unclear what his ceiling as a manager is. Can he effectively communicate with his players? Can he reinsert Ansu Fati into the starting lineup and get him back to his best? Can Xavi not buy more Ferrans?
We’ll see.
If the goal is Champions League glory, then the squad needs a right back, a backup striker, and a world class defensive midfielder. It needs the willingness and skill to take risks that aren’t particularly risky (a through ball isn’t risky if you will simply regain control momentarily) and it needs to solve its injury problem. Real Madrid is showing that injuries can happen to anyone at any time, so it is not necessarily a matter of getting a better physio, but instead a bit of luck. It is also about managing loads, a thing that Xavi has not necessarily done well early on in the season. It is imperative from a financial perspective that the team make it to the Champions League round of 16 while maintaining pace in the league; it is important from a fan perspective that the team appear to be moving forward.
I worry about a few things:
- Can Lewandowski regain and sustain his form from the first half of last season? If he can’t, how can we combat this decline? Benching him only brings up the question of who will replace him. Vitor Roque is the obvious answer, but he is not available until January, barring some unforeseen development. Pushing him forward to exclusively make runs in the box rather than drop towards midfield to play back-to-goal threatens to make the buildup one dimensional. Having him drop towards midfield threatens to remove any 6-yard box threat and isolate Pedri. If he drifts wide, who will cut in to be the dangerous player Dembele once was?
- Can Fati be The Guy? He looks fit, but not sharp. I want his reemergence so badly it hurts. Part of that is, of course, my 5-year old’s obsession with him: she asks if Fati and Gavi are starting before every match kicks off. If one or both are, she settles onto the couch happily to watch; if they aren’t, she grumbles and asks why, given that they’re clearly the best players.
- Will Gavi’s development be hindered by Gundogan’s presence?
- Will we continue to see lackluster performances in midfield because Xavi can’t find a fix to the width problem? Raphinha should be able to hold his own on the right, but doesn’t seem likely to beat many players 1 v 1 despite his skills. If Lewandowski isn’t available in the box because he’s dropping deep, does this completely neuter Raphinha’s incredible ability to cut inside and drop inch-perfect crosses and thus render him far too one-dimensional?
- Why is Marcos Alonso in the squad? In a penny-pinching era, he was extended even as the club signed Iñigo Martinez. He is ostensibly Balde’s backup and although his preseason was decent, he is over the hill (and far away); success will not come with him on the field.
- Sergi Roberto seems like a good guy, but just being a good guy isn’t good enough to warrant a captaincy. I worry I’m missing something fundamental here. He just an attractive Catalan guy, not an obvious leader! Is everyone taking crazy pills??
I said before we would win the league and I’m just as sure of it now as I was then, despite being 2 points behind Real Madrid after 1 match. 37 to go, you know. Whatever, I’m optimistic about the future of this team and this club. If I weren’t, it would be time to quit it all. And I’m not ready for that, not with two children who want nothing more than to see Barça score and win. No, it is time to spread the gospel far and wide.
Visca el Barça y visca Catalunya.
It Is As It Ever Was: FC Barcelona 2023-24 Season Preview (Part 2)
In Part 1, I mostly wrote about who has left us, so that leaves me with who has joined us and what any of this means. To dive right in, well, we’ll start with someone who is expected to dive in (and win the ball):
Oriol Romeu is 31 years old. This, in and of itself, is not particularly concerning because he is a low-cost replacement for 35-going-on-45-year old Sergio Busquets, but it’s somewhat telling that the best defensive midfielder Barcelona could get is player deemed not good enough for Southampton for something around €3.4 million. Sure, that’s absolutely a bargain compared to the €133 million that Chelsea are paying Brighton for Moises Caicedo (and I mean that very seriously: there’s no way Caicedo is 39 times the player Romeu is) or the €120 million Chelsea also paid for Enzo Fernandez last January…or the €70 million they paid for Romeo Lavia…or the €27 million they paid for Lesley Ugochukwu (who seems quite the bargain now!). This is a good signing for depth, but not a great signing for a starter, it’s just that some decisions had to be made, a team had to be fielded, and a solid player was found who grew up in the system, spending 4 years in La Masia and an additional 2-ish years in the B team before bouncing up to the first team for 1 match. Then it was off to, obviously, Chelsea. Then it was time for a whole career: Chelsea, Valencia, Stuttgart, 8 seasons at Southampton, and finally a re-emergence in Spain for last season with Girona. His time back in Catalunya has gone well and he generally got plaudits for his play (33 league appearances), but he wasn’t spectacular. And, in some ways, that’s precisely what Barça need: depth; unspectacular, normal, totally decent depth. And Oriol will provide that. It’s a fine signing, but it’s plugging a hole rather than sealing it up.
The guy who was supposed to seal up a hole is Ilkay Gundogan, but—and here is where I’m going to differ from a large number of fans—even if Gundogan is a very good player at 32 (turns 33 in October), this is also not how you go about building a long-term squad. Yes, he’s good, but he’s also expensive and will likely command large amounts of playing time when it would be better spent on young players growing into superstars, such as Gavi and Pedri. This is a season preview, but I have the luxury of having seen the first match before writing this particular bit, so I can say that I was concerned about Pedri’s role against Getafe. Sure, Bordalas likes to play on the edge between “tough football” and “common assault,” but it’s more that Pedri made just 10 passes in the first half. That’s almost tragically funny, but that’s not good for your most creative player. The question is whether Gundogan can coexist in a midfield with Pedri. I thought the question would be if Gundogan’s arrival would stifle Gavi’s development, but I didn’t think it might stifle Pedri’s on-field influence. The problem is that Gundogan is being paid a starter’s wages, so whether or not he’s the best option for squad growth, he’ll need to start (especially if he received promises of playing time as part of the lure away from Manchester City). That he’s quite good at this whole “football” thing is obviously an important detail and couple that with his prior relationship with Lewandowski at Borussia Dortmund and there’s reason to be optimistic, especially if Xavi is willing to rotate heavily throughout the year to keep legs fresh and players tuned. There is a lot of football to play and it is good for Barça that Gundogan is here, but I still question the motives of signing a player on the downswing of his career at a premium salary when salary is the albatross weighing down Barça’s neck.
The guy breathing down the starting role’s neck is Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, who I’m just going to call Abde from now on. A dynamic winger with speed to burn, there’s a bit of Adama Traore syndrome about him: with so much speed, it’s sometimes nice to just use it as a shortcut rather than taking a breath and getting into a better position for the final pass or shot. But he’s also 21 and capable of destabilizing defenses. It was just a preseason match, but against Arsenal he showed what he can do when given space. Against Getafe he showed some of his youthful limitations, choosing to take on players and shots when a pass would very possibly have unlocked 3 points. But we grow and learn and if it’s depth that we need, it’s depth that we have with Abde. Consider his season a grand experiment rather than a finished product demonstrating his skills. I want investment in youth and that is what this looks like. Our bank account demands investment in youth and that is what this looks like.
You might not be shocked to think that Iñigo Martinez looks like Thomas Vermaelen to me. If he plays this season, I’ll take it back (and he has hinted that he will), but so far we’ve signed a guy with a long-term injury despite not having any money. On paper a fully fit Martinez is a good addition because it removes any reliance on Marcos Alonso as backup LCB so if he’s fit and able to put in a variety of shifts throughout the season, this seems like it should be a pretty good deal and signing. I’m old enough, of course, to remember when he was at Real Sociedad and then of course at Athletic Bilbao and I’m also young enough to remember that I thought he was quite good, just not quite Barça level. So thinking that this is a quality signing is either me convincing myself he’s better than I thought or, perhaps worse, Barça’s level having dropped sufficiently that it makes the signing more viable. I hope I’m proven wrong on countless scores here, apparently.
But speaking of Barça’s level:
That point is extremely well taken, especially considering the financial constraints, the World Cup in the middle of season, and the constant pressure to succeed, but mainly it’s important to note that despite his success, Xavi is a victim of the value placed on European competition. Failure to reach the knockout rounds of the Champions League last year was a financial problem for the club, but it was an absolute disaster on Twitter where, as everyone knows, the truly knowledgeable and even-keeled people reside. You can follow me here.
What drives the narrative that Xavi, whose defensive record for the first 34 matches of the league was 13 goals allowed, cannot figure out how to marshal a squad? The offensive output over that same period was 64 goals. 27 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses sealed the deal and it’s weird to think that a 79.4% win rate and an 83.33% points earned rate is bad. It should not be forgotten that Luis Enrique won 76.24% of his matches in charge and even the great Pep Guardiola, greatest manager of all time, had a 72.47% win rate. Ronald Koeman had a Barça career record of 39-12-16, which is a 58.21% win rate and Frank Rijkaard had a 58.61% win rate.
Xavi is developing as a manager alongside a squad that is also developing and it shouldn’t be forgotten that Koeman left him with a hole to climb out of. I am happy to criticize managers who sign players like Ferran Torres for far more than they are worth, but it is also important to note that Xavi resurrected Dembele, gave Pedri and Gavi immense roles, developed Balde into a young-but-still-great left back, and has been the pragmatist that so many cules demanded and are now lambasting him for being.
And yet it is true that sometimes it feels like Xavi is being too, well, Xavi. When he was a player, Xavi was a purist and it seems obvious that he remains such now, as a manger. The difference is that he has a lot more responsibilities for the trajectory of the team and is thus looking for a way to win right now rather than a way to win the correct way. He’s vertical because his players require verticality since they can’t control matches particularly well. This is a function of players that were brought in under Xavi of course (Kessie, for example), so it is partly Xavi’s fault for this approach that so many Barça fans think of as too direct. It is also true that Xavi wants squad depth so that the team can play a high-octane version of Xavi, Iniesta es una fiesta and has been hampered by key injuries; Xavi is also responsible for bringing in the medical team. There is a bit of give-and-take here that has to be ironed out and it’s somewhat understandable for fans to look at what Xavi has put forward and be unsure of how much better it will get.
After all, Pep Guardiola came up from the B team and showed the world how football should really be played (according to Barça lore); Lucho appeared to reinforce that, but with horses in midfield. Xavi is just the next step in that line…or he’s another fallen prophet, a cipher. A large caveat for Xavi is that his first season in charge and his European statistics bring his overall stats down to a 60.4% win rate.
You can simultaneously argue that Xavi simply doesn’t have the squad he wants (he needs a right back, but will Cancelo actually join?) and that he has failed to build with the resources on offer (spent 55m on Ferran Torres). There are a lot of questions, but one thing is for certain: Xavi is not clueless. Could he be better? I think so. Does he know this? I’m sure of it. The team will continue to improve under him, but it is unclear what his ceiling as a manager is. Can he effectively communicate with his players? Can he reinsert Ansu Fati into the starting lineup and get him back to his best? Can Xavi not buy more Ferrans?
We’ll see.
If the goal is Champions League glory, then the squad needs a right back, a backup striker, and a world class defensive midfielder. It needs the willingness and skill to take risks that aren’t particularly risky (a through ball isn’t risky if you will simply regain control momentarily) and it needs to solve its injury problem. Real Madrid is showing that injuries can happen to anyone at any time, so it is not necessarily a matter of getting a better physio, but instead a bit of luck. It is also about managing loads, a thing that Xavi has not necessarily done well early on in the season. It is imperative from a financial perspective that the team make it to the Champions League round of 16 while maintaining pace in the league; it is important from a fan perspective that the team appear to be moving forward.
I worry about a few things:
- Can Lewandowski regain and sustain his form from the first half of last season? If he can’t, how can we combat this decline? Benching him only brings up the question of who will replace him. Vitor Roque is the obvious answer, but he is not available until January, barring some unforeseen development. Pushing him forward to exclusively make runs in the box rather than drop towards midfield to play back-to-goal threatens to make the buildup one dimensional. Having him drop towards midfield threatens to remove any 6-yard box threat and isolate Pedri. If he drifts wide, who will cut in to be the dangerous player Dembele once was?
- Can Fati be The Guy? He looks fit, but not sharp. I want his reemergence so badly it hurts. Part of that is, of course, my 5-year old’s obsession with him: she asks if Fati and Gavi are starting before every match kicks off. If one or both are, she settles onto the couch happily to watch; if they aren’t, she grumbles and asks why, given that they’re clearly the best players.
- Will Gavi’s development be hindered by Gundogan’s presence?
- Will we continue to see lackluster performances in midfield because Xavi can’t find a fix to the width problem? Raphinha should be able to hold his own on the right, but doesn’t seem likely to beat many players 1 v 1 despite his skills. If Lewandowski isn’t available in the box because he’s dropping deep, does this completely neuter Raphinha’s incredible ability to cut inside and drop inch-perfect crosses and thus render him far too one-dimensional?
- Why is Marcos Alonso in the squad? In a penny-pinching era, he was extended even as the club signed Iñigo Martinez. He is ostensibly Balde’s backup and although his preseason was decent, he is over the hill (and far away); success will not come with him on the field.
- Sergi Roberto seems like a good guy, but just being a good guy isn’t good enough to warrant a captaincy. I worry I’m missing something fundamental here. He just an attractive Catalan guy, not an obvious leader! Is everyone taking crazy pills??
I said before we would win the league and I’m just as sure of it now as I was then, despite being 2 points behind Real Madrid after 1 match. 37 to go, you know. Whatever, I’m optimistic about the future of this team and this club. If I weren’t, it would be time to quit it all. And I’m not ready for that, not with two children who want nothing more than to see Barça score and win. No, it is time to spread the gospel far and wide.
Visca el Barça y visca Catalunya.